Always championing the common punter, and with the jumps season starting in earnest this weekend at Cheltenham, ATRIED begins a series analysing betting systems in order to find the easiest route to sure-fire winnings. This week we examine the Ludicrous Each Way Double, or LEWD system for short.
Why ludicrous I hear you cry? Ludicrous because it involves backing short-priced favourites each way. I would never back a single 6/4 shot each way as I wouldn’t get my money back for a place, but put two of them together in an each way double and all of a sudden it becomes a decent proposition. Even if they both just place you get your stake returned, and there’s always the hope that they both win for big bucks.
For this to work we need several criteria. Firstly, 6/4 on both horses is the minimum to get your money back, and a quarter the odds helps although this is increasingly difficult to find nowadays. I have focused on races containing eight, nine or ten runners as the most favourable for each way terms, and have disregarded joint favourites or those at 4/1 or more which you could justifiably back each way on their own.
I’ve collected data from all the race meetings over the last week in the UK and Ireland, and the double must be placed on races at the same course. If there is only one qualifying race at a fixture then there is no bet.
So, the results:
Over the past seven days (32 meetings and over 200 races) there were only 14 suitable opportunities for an each way double. Of these 28 selections, 6 won, 15 were placed and 7 were unplaced – frankly, a disappointing effort for short-priced favourites, and no double contained two winning selections. Unsurprisingly given these results, the LEWD system showed a loss of £9.28 to a £1 each way stake.
Clearly then, at least in the short term, this is the fast way to the poor house rather than the easy route to beating the bookies. I suppose we shouldn’t be surprised.
So we have done the dry run, and spectacularly unsuccessful it was. But we punters are optimistic folk, and somehow the Gods of Probability knew that it wasn’t for real. So tomorrow I shall embark on the first ‘live test’ of the dubious system. Early prices for Thursday’s racing are available on Bet365, and the selections are:
Ludlow – 2.30 Fly Home Harry 9/4, 3.35 Drinks Interval 7/4
Southwell – 1 qualifying race
Carlisle – 2.50 Western Jo 3/1, 4.25 Bigirononhiship 9/4
Thurles – no qualifying races
Chelmsford – 1 qualifying race